29 Bedsworth, Louise and Hanak, Ellen, “Local Climate Policy: Insights from California,” Global Environmental Change, 23:3 (2013), 664-677 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; “The world is watching California – again – rise up in the face of climate change,” said the Washington Post (September 25, 2016), available at “www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-world-is-watching-as-california-steps-up–again–on-climate-change/2016/09/25/f5cae480-76d0-11e6-8149-b8d05321db62_story.html?utm_term=.02daffb202ba.” Melanie Mason and Chris Megerian, California legislature extends state`s cap-and-trade program in rare bipartisan effort to address climate change www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-climate-change-vote-republicans-20170717-story.html ( 79 For starters, see z.B. Heath, Yuko and Gifford, Robert, “Free-market ideology and environmental degradation: the case of belief in climate change,” Environment and Behavior, 38:1 (2006), p. 48-71Ref CrossGoolargle, Schoske; Naomi and Conway, Erik, Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (London: Bloomsbury, 2010)Google Scholar On the latter, see z.B. Griffiths, Tom and Robin, Libby (Eds), Ecology and Empire: Environmental History of Settler Societies (Keele University Press, 1997) Google Scholar. The three columns to the left of Table 2 show the economic impact of the protocol. The R2 values (0.985 for the 1997 base year model and 0.917 for the 2005 base year) show that the three models can account for more than 90% of the change in GDP. Empirical models contain the program`s impact variable to determine the effectiveness of the protocol, according to Schedule I. Information on each country`s participation in the protocol comes from the UNFCCC [10], the official website of the Kyoto Protocol secretariat. The program effect variables of the models determine whether the parts are part of Schedule I by assigning a value of 1 during the year of combustion when the country is a member of Schedule I during the year of combustion. For GDP operating variables, this study uses gross fixed capital formation, participation rate (percentage of population aged 15 to 64) and adjusted savings expenditures (current U.S. dollar (USD)). GDP and capital data are expressed in constant USD from the year 2000, while education spending is currently expressed in dollars due to data constraints. The results indicate that the Kyoto Protocol has had significant positive effects on the reduction of CO2 emissions and negative effects on the level of GDP of the Schedule 1 parties.

The model forecasts for understanding the differences between the actual and the counterfactual situation provide a monetary value for economic loss and environmental benefits from participation in Schedule I parties. Although this study measured the overall effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol using advanced methods, the interpretation of this result needs to be examined. In addition, global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to continue to increase by 2030, even if each of the NDC pledges presented in Paris were fully implemented (from 49 to about 53 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year). Footnote 41 In this full implementation scenario, the Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5oC could be achieved as early as 2030 and no later than the 2040s. Footnote 42 Even if all existing NPOs were successfully implemented by 2030, the 2oC carbon budget could already be virtually exhausted. Footnote 43 Considers another possibility: According to the IPCC, limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius will likely require atmospheric CO2 levels to be kept below 450 parts per million (ppm), or at least at this level – but the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii is currently showing values of 408 ppm, with an increase of more than 2 ppm per year, indicating that this figure will be reached within 20 years. At the bottom of page 44, according to the most recent estimates, the complete implementation of the Paris CNN by an average warming of 2100 between 2.6 and 3.2 degrees Celsius is sufficient.